Just when you think things are as chaotic as they can be, new events push us into entirely new levels of uncertainty.
The war in Iran has done exactly that. In a matter of weeks, it has reshaped the geopolitical landscape – for reasons that are still not entirely clear. Markets are volatile. Oil prices have surged. Inflationary pressures are rising. Transportation and food costs are following close behind.
There is an eerie parallel to the global oil crisis of the 1970s. Similar geography. Similar risks to supply. Similar ripple effects across the global economy.
Those of us in the Passive House community know this is not just history, it’s origin story. In 1977, Harold Orr and his team built the Saskatchewan Conservation House, asking a simple question: what if buildings simply used far less energy? Nearly 50 years later, we are still asking that same question.
What Actually Drives Change
Before going further, it’s important to acknowledge something else. War is not an abstraction. It is not just markets and prices and policy shifts. It is human lives lost, families torn apart, and communities displaced. No discussion about energy or economics should ever lose sight of that.
And yet history shows us something uncomfortable. It is not the human cost that changes energy policy. It is not even the environmental cost.
It is price.
What things cost to produce. To transport. To heat. To cool. That is what drove innovation in the 1970s. And it is what is driving responses today.
The Wrong Starting Point
Around the world, governments are reacting. The UK, for example, is moving to require solar panels and heat pumps on new homes. It’s bold. It’s necessary. But it also reveals something. We are still starting at the wrong end. We focus on how energy is produced before we deal with how much energy is needed. That’s backwards.
The Opportunity We Keep Missing
The most effective path to energy independence is not just cleaner energy. It is less energy.
A Passive House building uses up to 90% less energy for heating and cooling than a conventional one. A deep retrofit can reduce that demand by up to 70%.
That changes everything. Lower exposure to price shocks. Lower operating costs. Greater resilience – by design, not by subsidy. And it lasts for the life of the building.
So Why Aren’t We Leading With This?
This is the part that should give us pause. We know how to do this. We’ve known for decades. We’ve proven it. And yet it still takes a geopolitical crisis to move the conversation.
We lead with climate. We talk about emissions, sea levels, extreme weather. All valid. All necessary. But those arguments don’t move markets at scale. Cost does. Risk does. Security does.
The Real Crisis
The real crisis isn’t just happening overseas. It’s a reminder – a sharp one – of something we already know. The strongest path to energy security, affordability, and resilience isn’t more supply. It’s less demand.
We already know how to build that future. The question now isn’t what do we do?
It’s are we finally ready to act – and to act together?
So, if you are in government setting policy, involved in financing or purchasing, sitting on a planning committee, collaborating on a design team, or working on site…
Let’s do this already.
